Tag Archives: AutonomousCars

Musk says things that are directly opposite to the current facts #tesla

I’m interested in EVs and have had a great experience owning one before, so naturally I’m watching Tesla with lots of interest. But this kind of stuff is just frustrating:

“If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset,” Musk said during an interview with MIT research scientist Lex Fridman.

A Tesla will be worth $150,000 to $250,000 in 3 years, he claimed.

An actual report from the field:

It seems from the used market that the value has plummeted. The one I bought is easy $40k less just a year old.

Musk has pulled off some crazy shit before, will he be able to defy the current reality? It kind of looks like a matter of blind faith at this point. A quick Kelly Blue Book sanity check:

New 2019 Tesla Model S 75D $77,200

Used 2017 Tesla Model S 75 Sedan 4D $52,365 Private Party Value

Today, Model S value plummets like a dead bird. To me, it seems like a great toy for someone who has an extra $30k to piss away just to have some fun. But who knows? Maybe tomorrow will be radically different and Elon will be able to magically breathe some AI fairy dust over remote software update into all those existing cars. I guess the trick is to try to get a model and a set of options that will qualify for this utopian future upgrade.

Programmers wiped out by robots

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US. They will all be gradually replaced by robots in the next few years, and then we will have a massive bloodbath caused by 3.5 million (no offense) low-skilled, unemployed people hunting for food.

From their perspective, this may look unrealistic – heavy driving seems like a really taxing and complex activity: it demands lots of attention, it has many special cases, it often requires reading social cues from other humans that only humans can understand. Yet, the switch to robots (and the ensuing social cataclysm) look inevitable in short few years.

In my line of work, I’ve been long puzzled by a similar issue. Why in the field of computer science and engineering, which is ultimately governed by the physics of the circuits, switches, math and formal logic that stems from that, why so much of the routine daily work programming those soul-less machines involves so much of: human judgement, uncertainty, doubt, debates/flame wars over “patterns”, and straight up insane (for any other engineering line of work) rates of errors, crashes and bugs?

I mean, it’s hard to imagine a modern-built physical bridge that just crashes “because bugs”. Or take air travel: in the US, 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles for the first decade of this century. For the whole second decade – 0 deaths (almost).

Modern planes are heavily computerized, is that software written by some kind of a different breed of humans than, say, web software? Because my online banking from Citi goes down every week, and it’s a freaking banking service with the same use cases since the 14th century, repeated many times daily by 7000 banks in the US, nowhere near as complicated as the software that’s automatically, near-flawlessly flying and landing the jets in this country.

But wait, the higher are the regular software stakes, the bigger seems the reliance on human judgement. “Our web service is facing unique performance challenges and only the team XYZ has enough experience to scale it to that level.” Mind you, human programmers still haven’t sorted out if something as long-used as OOP is even a viable concept – some say that it is an unmaintainable disaster, a non-starter, others have been building stable systems with it for decades. With stubborn opinions so polarized, mutually exclusive in a field, again, governed by the laws of physics, it seems kind of very wrong that so much of the programming and design is still performed manually by fickle, biased mortals.

I don’t see any replacement yet. But maybe I’m just a truck driver.

Level 5 #SelfDrivingCars by 2021, by 2030 gas cars drop near zero?

We’ll see… I’ll just leave this here : ) Will check back in a couple of years to see if gas and personal cars have gone the way of Kodak and the typewriter by then. Might be a bit upsetting for the Uber-bashing crowd out there, too. Some really interesting forecasts here and here:

  • Self-driving cars will launch around 2021
  • A private ride will be priced at 16¢ per mile, falling to 10¢ over time.
  • A shared ride will be priced at 5¢ per mile, falling to 3¢ over time.
  • By 2022, oil use will have peaked
  • By 2023, used car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero.
  • By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.