Tag Archives: EV

Musk says things that are directly opposite to the current facts #tesla

I’m interested in EVs and have had a great experience owning one before, so naturally I’m watching Tesla with lots of interest. But this kind of stuff is just frustrating:

“If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset,” Musk said during an interview with MIT research scientist Lex Fridman.

A Tesla will be worth $150,000 to $250,000 in 3 years, he claimed.

An actual report from the field:

It seems from the used market that the value has plummeted. The one I bought is easy $40k less just a year old.

Musk has pulled off some crazy shit before, will he be able to defy the current reality? It kind of looks like a matter of blind faith at this point. A quick Kelly Blue Book sanity check:

New 2019 Tesla Model S 75D $77,200

Used 2017 Tesla Model S 75 Sedan 4D $52,365 Private Party Value

Today, Model S value plummets like a dead bird. To me, it seems like a great toy for someone who has an extra $30k to piss away just to have some fun. But who knows? Maybe tomorrow will be radically different and Elon will be able to magically breathe some AI fairy dust over remote software update into all those existing cars. I guess the trick is to try to get a model and a set of options that will qualify for this utopian future upgrade.

Level 5 #SelfDrivingCars by 2021, by 2030 gas cars drop near zero?

We’ll see… I’ll just leave this here : ) Will check back in a couple of years to see if gas and personal cars have gone the way of Kodak and the typewriter by then. Might be a bit upsetting for the Uber-bashing crowd out there, too. Some really interesting forecasts here and here:

  • Self-driving cars will launch around 2021
  • A private ride will be priced at 16¢ per mile, falling to 10¢ over time.
  • A shared ride will be priced at 5¢ per mile, falling to 3¢ over time.
  • By 2022, oil use will have peaked
  • By 2023, used car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero.
  • By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.