This is probably the most comprehensive startup guide I’ve ever seen in one post. I wonder how much time this guy spent writing all this up and sharing with everybody.
There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US. They will all be gradually replaced by robots in the next few years, and then we will have a massive bloodbath caused by 3.5 million (no offense) low-skilled, unemployed people hunting for food.
From their perspective, this may look unrealistic – heavy driving seems like a really taxing and complex activity: it demands lots of attention, it has many special cases, it often requires reading social cues from other humans that only humans can understand. Yet, the switch to robots (and the ensuing social cataclysm) look inevitable in short few years.
In my line of work, I’ve been long puzzled by a similar issue. Why in the field of computer science and engineering, which is ultimately governed by the physics of the circuits, switches, math and formal logic that stems from that, why so much of the routine daily work programming those soul-less machines involves so much of: human judgement, uncertainty, doubt, debates/flame wars over “patterns”, and straight up insane (for any other engineering line of work) rates of errors, crashes and bugs?
I mean, it’s hard to imagine a modern-built physical bridge that just crashes “because bugs”. Or take air travel: in the US, 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles for the first decade of this century. For the whole second decade – 0 deaths (almost).
Modern planes are heavily computerized, is that software written by some kind of a different breed of humans than, say, web software? Because my online banking from Citi goes down every week, and it’s a freaking banking service with the same use cases since the 14th century, repeated many times daily by 7000 banks in the US, nowhere near as complicated as the software that’s automatically, near-flawlessly flying and landing the jets in this country.
But wait, the higher are the regular software stakes, the bigger seems the reliance on human judgement. “Our web service is facing unique performance challenges and only the team XYZ has enough experience to scale it to that level.” Mind you, human programmers still haven’t sorted out if something as long-used as OOP is even a viable concept – some say that it is an unmaintainable disaster, a non-starter, others have been building stable systems with it for decades. With stubborn opinions so polarized, mutually exclusive in a field, again, governed by the laws of physics, it seems kind of very wrong that so much of the programming and design is still performed manually by fickle, biased mortals.
I don’t see any replacement yet. But maybe I’m just a truck driver.
The return on my portfolio with LendingClub – my choice was mostly low-grade notes – steadily dropped all the way down to 5.88% over the last year and a half. Until we finally run into this:
As of 11/7/2017, F & G grade Notes are not available for purchase by investors.
noticed an increase in prepayment and delinquency rate in F and G grade Notes
Seems like the 20+% APY party came to an end. Even without any major event or recession in sight yet. My guess would be that with a spike in demand, LendingClub had to loosen up some criteria and let in a bunch of borrowers they wouldn’t and shouldn’t have otherwise, so now all of us are paying the price. Still might get much worse when the economy starts to tank.
Equifax Says Cyberattack May Have Hit 143 Million Customers (Bloomberg)
That’s 60% of all US adults, or pretty much everyone with a credit card. There is a big file floating around somewhere that has enough info on you for anyone to take out a bunch of money in your name and dump that debt on you. You can prevent that by putting a credit freeze on your personal info, which you can lift when you need to apply for credit yourself – here is an FTC link on how to do all three.
The most maddening thing about this leak is that – unlike Ashley Madison – this time you cannot opt out of this shit or “just stop doing it”. If you are a functioning human in USA, you are pretty much forced to store your most sensitive financial and personal info with these scumbags, and then they go on and leak all of it. I hope they get sued to death for being a bunch of incompetent de facto extortionists.
Of course, it’s another issue altogether that what used to be called impersonation and bank’s failure to verify its borrower, the same thing now is referred to by an idiotic oxymoron identity theft and somehow it became not the bank’s problem but yours.
Quote 1, June 9, 2016:
I say we are going to IPO as late as humanly possible. It’ll be one day before my employees and significant others come to my office with pitchforks and torches. We will IPO the day before that. Do you get it?
Quote 2, August 30th, 2017:
In response to a question about going public, Khosrowshahi said it would probably happen in 18 to 36 months, according to two people who listened to the meeting. “It’s my opinion that the company should go public,” he said.
Of course it’s your opinion, that why you just got hired!
Looks like the IPO will happen shortly after the VC’s came to TK’s office with pitchforks. Everything else was just clowning and smear campaigning by Benchmark to depose him. Everyone who jumped onboard the righteous moralizing Uber-bashing train should be really ashamed now. HR incidents happen at any company, everyone involved in them must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. That doesn’t excuse a ridiculous anti-PR attack that almost took down the entire company. And even now it’s not clear if Uber will fully recover.
We’ll see… I’ll just leave this here : ) Will check back in a couple of years to see if gas and personal cars have gone the way of Kodak and the typewriter by then. Might be a bit upsetting for the Uber-bashing crowd out there, too. Some really interesting forecasts here and here:
- Self-driving cars will launch around 2021
- A private ride will be priced at 16¢ per mile, falling to 10¢ over time.
- A shared ride will be priced at 5¢ per mile, falling to 3¢ over time.
- By 2022, oil use will have peaked
- By 2023, used car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero.
- By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.
One event I don’t see there though is the DEF CON Shoot, Wed 26 18:00 and Thu 27 9:00
Part of why I love being in this field – I’m not really aware of any other global community with annual weeklong bashes in Vegas.